Leveraging Momentum to Predict 4th Down Conversion in the National Football League

In this article and associated notebook, I unequivocally prove that momentum exists in the NFL by quantifying and using it to build a highly accurate predictor of 4th down conversion.

“The model detailed in this article could be easily deployed and run in real time. There is no reason why any coach should be making bad decisions on fourth down. Knowing when to “go for it” on fourth down is not a mystery if you quantify the momentum of the game.”

GitHub - shadgriffin/NFL: Notebook that builds model predict fourth down conversion probability.

This analysis takes advantage of the following open source python library. For more information and data licensing please see the following link.